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Computer Science Teacher - Thoughts and Information from Alfred Thompson

Alfred Thompson's blog about teaching computer science at the K-12 level. Alfred was a high school computer science teacher for 8 years. He has also taught grades K-8 as a computer specialist. He has written several textbooks and project books for teaching Visual Basic in high school and middle school. Alfred is the K-12 Computer Science Academic Relations Manager for Microsoft and is trying to be the Microsoft Education Blogger.

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Job Statistics

One of my co-workers, Sam Stokes, put together a list of statistics about job projections in the US IT industry. I've copied a bunch of them here. Links to the origional data is supplied so you can see the details for yourself.

Computer software engineers, applications

  • Number of jobs in 2004 was                                                               460,000
  • Number of jobs predicted in 2014 will be                                          682,000
  • Increase                                                                                               222,000
  • Percent Increase by 2014  (Increase of jobs/jobs in 2004*100)          48.4%

Computer software engineers, systems software

  • Number of jobs in 2004 was                                                               340,000
  • Number of jobs predicted in 2014 will be                                          486,000
  • Increase                                                                                               146,000
  • Percent Increase by 2014 (Increase of jobs/jobs in 2004*100)           43%

Computer systems analysts

  • Number of jobs in 2004 was                                                               487,000
  • Number of jobs predicted in 2014 will be                                          640,000
  • Increase                                                                                               153,000
  • Percent Increase by 2014 (Increase of jobs/jobs in 2004*100)           31.4%

Computer Scientists and Database Administrators

  • Number of jobs in 2004 was                                                               104,000
  • Number of jobs predicted in 2014 will be                                          144,000
  • Increase                                                                                               40,000
  • Percent Increase by 2014 (Increase of jobs/jobs in 2004*100)           38.2%

Network and computer systems administrator

  • Number of jobs 2004 is                                                                       278,000
  • Number of jobs predicted in 2014 will be                                          385,000          
  • Increase                                                                                               107,000
  • Percent Increase by 2014 (Increase of jobs/jobs in 2004*100)           38.4%

Published Wednesday, January 25, 2006 4:31 AM by Alfred Thompson

Comments

# re: Job Statistics @ Wednesday, January 25, 2006 5:30 AM

...and the percentage of these jobs going offshore is... (drum roll)...

John Hitchin

# re: Job Statistics @ Wednesday, January 25, 2006 6:32 AM

No, those are the jobs that are staying here. The statistics do not count jobs going off shore.

Alfred Thompson

# re: Job Statistics @ Wednesday, January 25, 2006 10:00 AM

These are calculations based on current assuumptions. Five years ago the assumption was that there would be little or no off shoreing. These current assumptions should be taken with a cupfull of salt becuase economic considerations drive offshoring more then anything technical and economic cycles are very hard to perdict

DeepICE2

# re: Job Statistics @ Wednesday, January 25, 2006 12:18 PM

To really make it interesting, he should show the predicted population increase over the same period ... and from that show if the demand for those jobs will raise or lower.

Danny Cooper

# re: Job Statistics @ Wednesday, January 25, 2006 2:55 PM

I saw some numbers recently (I'm looking for a link) that suggested that the rate of population growth was slowing down and that was going to make the shortage of new IT people worse. The basic thought was that people would be retiring faster than new people were entering the work force. See also yesterday's post on the concerns about government employees in Canada retiring in the next few years.

Alfred Thompson

# re: Job Statistics @ Wednesday, January 25, 2006 11:03 PM

Alfred is correct, the numbers reflect the new considerations for outsourcing and that the rate of increase has slowed since the 2004 to 2012 numbers came out. The decrease in the rate of increase is included in the numbers.
As to the population increase or decrease, who cares, it will have little effect.
The bottom line is that the jobs will be there, when you compare the numbers to the accounting, lawyers or financial analysts these are around 18% increase. We all face jobs moving off shore, everyone, including lawyers, many patents are being done by shops in India, accounting work can be done off shore as well. So the bottom line is that if off shoring is stopped, then our quality of life will suffer.

The general population will increase about 7% by the data at www.cenus.gov. This is a conservative estimate using extrapolation since the last data point is the year 2000, so I used the Cenus projection for 2010 and 2020 and built from that, then I determined the year by year increase to determine the data between 2000 and 2006, then used the 2010 and 2020 projection to get the number. So the increase in populatin is still MUCH lower then the numbers shown.

If you want to see the raw data then go to www.bls.gov and look around. Thi is like ignoring Moore's law, assuming that the growth isn't there somehow, you lose opportunity.

So get it together and assume that you are going to be working for awhile. You might have to move, low probability. But the future looks far more rosey then I normally feel is true.

devschool article author

# re: Job Statistics @ Wednesday, January 25, 2006 11:10 PM

Please read the following line:
So the bottom line is that if off shoring is stopped, then our quality of life will suffer.

What I meant is:
The excellent quality of life that we are leading right now is due to the out sourcing of work.

In 1929 the depression occurred because of congress blocking trade. Any blockage of trade right now will cause the same situation.

I have lost two jobs to out sourcing: One to Europe to Airbus and another to outsourcing to Japan. Neither of these outsourcing situations were due to price, they were due to quality. We have to do our jobs with better quality and by using automation. If you thing that line by line coding is going to keep you working then that would be wrong assumption. Coding automation like the VSTS/TFS is the way to go. Pounding out Java (or C#, or C) in a notepad like editor is a great way to get a new career.

Upgrade your skills at schools like National University or a teaching university.

devshool guy again

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