As Business Week's Rob Hof has noticed, I've been trying to keep up with all the 2006 predictions going on this month.
But it's no good if you look forward, only not to look back, and see how you did in retrospect. If you see what I mean.
So, here is a reminder of my ten 2005 predictions...how did I do? Who cares?!
No RSS feed. Bummer And no real big news throughout the year - allofmp3 has generally kept under the radar, until recently that is - looks like the RIAA will try to spoil the Russian party..., but allofmp3 is still an underground service. I'm pretty sure by the end of next year the service will be 'famous'. So, I didn't ge this one right - C, for Crap.
2. Podcasting buzzes to video content
2005 was year of the podcast, no doubt, but there was some buzz around vlogs, and new companies and services emerged this year taking advantage of the online video content trend. Oh, and Apple launched their video iPod (as did others). I think I did ok. A
3. Bill Gates doesn't launch his blog (I hope I'm wrong)
I was right here. A
4. My wife starts her first blog (on http://spaces.msn.com, primarily for distributing photos)
Wrong, kind of. She's not blogging but is using a service call photo sharing service Photomax. Doesn't count though. I think she needs to get the blogging religion from of Robert's wife and Chris's girlfriend. C
5. RSS not 'ubiquitous' yet, but makes it into the Interactive Advertising Bureau's (IAB) Ad Campaign Measurement and Audit Guidelines
Wrong on the IAB call, but that's because the IAB can't get its act together.
Although RSS has certainly made great strides this year, it has not become ubiquitous in 2005 (er, as predcited). IE7 and Vista in 2006 will at last bring RSS to the majority of the online masses. B
6.In-Flight broadband wi-fi access offered by one major airline.
James Governor kindly points out SAS had already done this by the time I posted the prediction. Since SAS went online at the end of last year, Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, Korean Air, China Airlines, Asiana Airlines are now offering the Boeing Connexion service on flights. B
7. Email spam becomes a non-issue for end-users, but Mobile & Comment spamming gets worse
I'm finding it hard to actually find any numbers that show spam to have either increased or decreased this year. Closest I can find is a recent report by the FTC claiming that the spam numbers have levelled off. Hardly a non-issue for end-users. D minus for me here.
8. Online extortion grows
It has grown, but not maybe as much as some have claimed. Examples of the kind of thing I meant include a Newscientist.com reported in August: of Cybercriminals making a mint by bringing e-commerce firms to a standstill with distributed DDoS. eWeek has a catalog of extortion related stories, pointing to some rather nasty going ons. B
9. the 'Browser Wars' are back
Some evidence of Firefox growth in 2005, but hardly a browser war. C
10.I don't get a parking ticket in London
OK, so I moved to Seattle in January...I got an A here.