So on two separate occasions over the last three days, I heard analysis so ridiculous I was forced to write a quick blog entry. It pertains to the iPhone SDK and the impact of Kleiner Perkins' $100m venture fund for iPhone apps. First of all, let me preface my comments by saying that 1) I love the iPhone, but 2) I think Apple's business model of taking 30% of revenue for iPhone apps is stunningly greedy and will ultimately prove to be unsustainable.
I don't typically comment on the mobile business but I do frequently comment on the impact of market dynamics on web developers. A few folks I know in the industry suggested that the iPhone is at a disadvantage because since it is a single platform, it doesn't have the reach of the remainder of the highly fragmented mobile phone industry.
The truth is that couldn't be further from the truth.
Web developers & entrepreneurs want simplicity in their app development cycle. I'd give up a lot of the target market if I had a simple and single way to build & test my app. In fact, I know a lot of developers who haven't built mobile apps due to the complexity involved.
Fortunately the market is moving towards simplicity with the iPhone SDK, Microsoft's plans for Silverlight on mobile devices, etc. But simpler is better. And as entrepreneurs and developers make business decisions, my guess is that they'll evolve *away* from the fragmented mobile device market and they'll embrace emerging centers of gravity over time.