As far as I can see the main change in the development of new content is the continued expansion of video content. Why is this the case?

Guesses -

  • Bandwidth is cheaper and faster.
  • Nobody wants to read anything anymore
  • Video is cheaper to develop now and video is better than words

I really don’t know the answer. I think it is a combination of all that. But I don’t know that these are facts apart from the first one. I have older teenage kids. It is a fact that they think email is “old timey” like cars that aren’t hybrids or electric. And it’s true that they watch a lot of video on phones and computer screens. In fact, my son is as likely to be using the TV as a means of consuming a game “playthrough” as he is to be watching Friends. (I can’t explain his fascination with Friends either.)

And most people who are potential consumers of software development content also probably have smart phones with high data capacity. So more and more “tech people” are consuming content on phones, tablets and computer screens. And more and more, it is folly for me to generalize my habits to the marketplace. I mean, I love email so that proves that I’m out of touch. I also don’t wear headphones all the time and consider skinny jeans an abomination.

Of course, this type of case study is nothing new. In business school, you study a lot of “buggy whip” cases where the company fails to see the change in the market and continues toward inevitable failure with the best buggy whips in the business, totally missing the horseless carriage paradigm shift.

The first question is this: Where is software development going? It seems to be going toward online development. That is, your programming environment is literally in a browser. Developing consumes services from the cloud. There is no “compiler” per se on your hard drive. The UI is central to understanding everything. You won’t read up on anything except in a Just-in-Time way. And all that content will be highly instrumented to see what and how it is used. All your reading will be done online. Books will be for old people or for use at the beach, the rare time you go to the beach. Books will be quaint like all the other kitsch in the beach house.

The content will be broad and shallow except in a few deep spots. An entire programming interface will follow the established patterns and you won’t have to do a lot of learning there. You will probe deeply on certain areas and all other areas will get a light touch. Consuming services is almost passé now. Web analytics on your site? of course.

Data storage will be in the cloud so reading and writing to the cloud is the first pattern you have to master. Security will continue to be a black box on the side of every UI design graphic. It needs to be there or someone will mention it but mostly it is the purview of security experts.

Any content you use in development will be delivered to support that context. It will be like high-level Minecraft with mods. That’s my guess. Content will increasingly become video that is analogous to a playthroughs for games.