now, this is a fun one IMHO. It is my opinion that the cloud as plumbing will continue to over-shadow the cloud as the application platform, for the short-term and for the medium-term - and most certainly through 2010.
However, I do believe that in the longer-term the cloud as application platform will overtake and be the dominant viewpoint. IMHO through 2010, the focus will be on re-platforming to the cloud i.e. 'cloud as plumbing'.
Obviously, these are my opinions - all speculation here is mine and mine only - not those of my employer.