Software Engineering, Project Management, and Effectiveness
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker
This is my summary of key trends to watch for 2010. Putting it together is a time-consuming exercise, but it’s one of the most important things I do for the year. It helps me see the bigger map. With the bigger map, I have a simpler way to understand what’s going on, anticipate what to expect, respond more effectively, and most importantly – make better bets on where to spend my time.
Don’t read this as a definitive list. Draw from it to help you create your own lens to make sense of the landscape and find your path forward. It’s long, I tried to keep it as scannable as possible. I didn’t want to cut it short for the sake of simplicity. Instead, I wanted to provide a solid map with sources you can draw from as you plan your road ahead.
Key Sources I primarily draw from my own experience working with customers, and paying attention to what they’re paying attention to, as well as paying attention to my mentors and smarties across the company, and whoever they tell me to pay attention to. I also draw from the following:
Aside from these, I also scoured the Web and scanned bloggers, industry luminaries, and any relevant and significant insight I could find.
The Short List – 5 Keys to the Future Before the longer list, I want to shin the light on 5 key things:
Key Trends for 2010 Here is my summary of key trends for 2010:
My synthesis -- stay customer connected, create value for society (it’s not a vacuum), create raving fans, build to change over build to last, learn and respond through effective business intelligence, think in terms of platforms/ecosystems/execution, be the best in the world at what you do (on the Web, you don't need a bunch of #2s), stay flexible and adaptable, and build the network and relationships that support you and your ecosystem.
With that in mind, here are some more keys to watch for …
Trends to Watch in 2010 by John John deVadoss John runs our Microsoft patterns & practices team. He’s great at boiling things down, spotting trends, and his super skill is providing insight for technical strategy. Here are some of his insights for 2010:
Economy + Internet Trends by Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet Trends is a very nice report by Morgan Stanley. While it reinforces the “jobless” economic recovery, it does show growth in the IT sector, and it calls out some key tech trends:
I also like some of their distillations, such as “Facebook = unified communication + multimedia repository in your pocket.”
Web 2.0 Trends from Scoble Kevin Skobac put together a short presentation interpreting Scoble’s “principles of the 2010 web” from a user perspective:
Key Questions I Ask to Find and Rationalize Trends These are some of the basic questions I ask to find and rationalize key trends:
The Meta-Pattern for Trends These are some of the patterns I’m noticing about the patterns of the trends:
There are a lot of kings here. In checkers, it’s easier to win when you have a lot of kings.
The Way Foreword What’s past is past and the future
What else is important that I should know about or have on my radar and heat map?
Just doubting about the hire economy. Is it true?
meta patterns sounds a lot like "the third wave" theory
ok, the future is now. But lets be honest, developments are rather slow because this is the third year in a row that ive heard that mobile is the future...