Success of FSX and Future of the Franchise - PTaylor's WebLog - Site Home

I see questions all the time about how successful is FSX as compared to FS9.

I cannot share internal data as that is a firing offense,J, even if it would make it easier to prove my point.

However, industry standard data is freely and publicly available upon which we can perform a relative analysis.

Here are links and reprints of the relevant industry standard data from NPD for 2003, 2004 (1st full year for FS9), 2005, 2006, and 2007 (1st full year for FSX).

Yearly Data

2003

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_040126a.htm

Annual 2003 Top 10 PC Video Game Titles Sorted By Units

Rank Title Publisher

1. The Sims: Superstar EP EA

2. The Sims Deluxe EA

3. Command & Conquer: Generals EA

4. Warcraft III: Frozen Throne EP Vivendi

5. The Sims: Makin’ Magic EP EA

6. The Sims: Unleashed EP EA

7. Sim City 4 EA

8. Call of Duty Activision

9. MS Age of Mythology Microsoft

10. Battlefield 1942 EA

2004

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=21300

Annual 2004 Top 10 PC Game Titles Sorted by Units

Rank Title Publisher

1.    The Sims 2                          EA
2.    Doom 3                              Activision
3.    World Of Warcraft                   Vivendi
4.    Half-Life 2                         Vivendi
5.    The Sims Deluxe                     EA

6. The Sims 2 Special Edition EA

7.    Battlefield Vietnam                 EA
8.    Call Of Duty                        Activision
9.    Roller Coaster Tycoon 3             Microsoft

10. MS Zoo Tycoon: Complete Collection Microsoft

I use this link because I could not find the PC specific data on NPD, only the console data. I looked up the publisher information.

2005

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_060117a.html

Annual 2005 Top 10 PC Game Titles Sorted by Units

Rank Title Publisher

1. World Of Warcraft Vivendi

2. The Sims 2: University Expansion Pack EA

3. The Sims 2 EA

4. Guild Wars NCSoft

5. Roller Coaster Tycoon 3 Atari

6. Battlefield 2 EA

7. The Sims 2 Nightlife Expansion Pack EA

8. MS Age Of Empires III Microsoft

9. The Sims Deluxe EA

10. Call Of Duty 2 Activision

2006

http://www.infoplease.com/science/computers/top-selling-pc-games-2006.html

Annual 2006 Top 10 PC Game Titles Sorted By Units

Rank Item Publisher

1. World of Warcraft Vivendi

2. The Sims 2 EA

3. Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Take II

4. Star Wars: Empire at War LucasArts

5. Microsoft Age of Empires III Microsoft

6. The Sims 2 Open for Business Expansion Pack EA

7. Civilization IV 2K Games Take II

8. Guild Wars Factions NCSoft

9. The Sims 2 Pets Expansion Pack EA

10. Microsoft Flight Simulator X Deluxe Microsoft

I use this data and link because the NPD link (http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_070119.html)

includes “collectors editions” and not just initial releases and that then pushes FSX out of the Top 10.

Note the infoplease data is confirmed here

http://onlinegamingradio.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-47.html

So that’s the usual journalistic 2 sources. Thinking about it, this likely comes from a more detailed report not freely available and republished by those 2 links.

Here is the NPD table with “collectors editions”, for completeness only

Rank Item Publisher

1. World Of Warcraft* Vivendi

2. The Sims 2 EA

3. The Sims 2 Open For Business Expansion Pack EA

4. Star Wars: Empire At War LucasArts

5. The Sims 2 Pets Expansion Pack EA

6. Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion* Take II

7. MS Age Of Empires III* Microsoft

8. The Sims 2 Family Fun Stuff Expansion Pack EA

9. Civilization IV Take II

10. The Sims 2 Nightlife Expansion Pack EA

*Includes Collector's Edition

Just so no one can accuse me of not fully reporting the data.

2007

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17129

I use the GamaSutra news report about the NPD re-release of the 2007 sales figures; strangely enough I cannot find that news release on the NPD site.

Top 10 PC Games of 2007 (Corrected)

Rank Item                                  Publisher
1.    World of Warcraft:The Burning Crusade Vivendi
2.    World of Warcraft                     Vivendi
3.    The Sims 2                            EA
4.    The Sims 2 Seasons Expansion Pack     EA
5.    Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare        Activision
6.    Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars    EA
7.    MS Age of Empires III                 Microsoft
8.    Sim City 4                            EA
9.    MS Flight Simulator X                 Microsoft
10.   The Sims 2: Bon Voyage Expansion Pack EA

Analysis of relative sales

Unfortunately the NPD sources I could find do not share units for all years.

That means while this doesn’t say anything about aggregate sales for FS9 over time, it does show that for the 1^st full year that data was available , 2004 vs 2007, FSX did better than FS9 based on its appearance on the “Top 10”, something FS9 never did.

That provides an indicator that FSX has been outselling FS9, time-period vs. time-period. I say that because FSX appeared on both “Top 10” lists, 2006 and 2007, for both years since release as compared to 0 appearances for FS9 since release. It is just not possible that FS9 sales in aggregate exceed the cumulative effect of FSX being a "Top 10" seller 2 years in a row. Now if FS9 had appeared on even 1 "Top 10" list, that might be a possibility. But it did not, so it is not. Thus FSX is therefore relatively more successful than FS9 in these terms.

3DPs should see that data and realize the extra complexity of developing for FSX does have a larger upside. And given the release date of FS11 follows TrainSim2; they have plenty of time to capitalize on that investment too.

Analysis of the “Future of the Franchise”.

The future of the franchise is secure. Period.

Any “discussion” about the demise of FS is just plain wrong. FS11 planning is in full swing, which means there will be an FS11. Guaranteed, unless we now do something wrong internally.

Can we stop the idle and baseless negative speculation now? Please?