If you're a stock trader at all, it'll come as no surprise to you that over the past three months we've been in a correction. If the definition of a bear market is a drop of 20%, then from peak to trough we have seen a bear market in the Nasdaq. Other indexes like the SP-500 and Russell 1000 do not confirm but they certainly come close.
I don't keep tabs on breakdown of specific types of spam (I have the raw data but I need to generate it in a readable format), but I wonder how well stock spammers do in a bad market? Are investors more likely to pile into a pump-and-dump during a bear market or a bull market? I wonder if the action or lack thereof could pinpoint turning points in the market? If not even the gullible stock spammees will buy penny stocks, then perhaps investor optimism is at its lowest point. Generally, this is bullish for stocks.
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Your analysis looks 100% accurate.