OpenSocial, Punctuated Equilibrium

bobreb — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 05:50:00 GMT

Generally speaking, OpenSocial is amazing news. The social layer I've been prattling on about for, well, a very long time, is really shaping up.

Though I still believe we've yet to do more than scratch the surface of social user experiences. And that surface, to stretch the analogy too far, is so wide it's been enough to get us all in a lather. Who now can say how deep it goes? And I believe there's a technical angle, or component, that's not addressed yet -- perhaps even a keystone technology or two.

Regardless, the barriers to entry just got lower to anyone interested in the application of a social layer to their core business value proposition -- and it applies to many existing core value propositions. More interesting, it's impossible to predict what new core value propositions will appear in the next few years, though very safe to predict that some, perhaps many, will. Which of those will demonstrate lasting value is another question. Ahhh, Darwin, you'd have loved the internet.

And what a lovely disruption it is. There's so much low hanging fruit. Web companies that stick to business as usual will be vulnerable. So will some traditional businesses, retailers in particular (many are already engaged). The analogy is rough, but I'm reminded of the mistake WordPerfect made so long ago when they elected to take a wait and see approach to Windows, while Microsoft moved to a graphical version of Word. It was, as they say, the beginning of the end for the then king of word processing. So it will go for businesses that fail to appropriately re-vision their services in light of the social aspect of computing. That is, assuming competition appears that moves intelligently in that direction.

If business runs in cycles analogous to the concept of punctuated equilibrium, it must be clear to just about everyone by now that this be the punctuation.

Bubble? Perhaps. I'm not an economist, so I won't risk an opinion. Opportunity? Clearly. Here to stay? Like breathing.

BTW, seen this? I kind of like the idea.

Change Happens

bobreb — Thu, 12 Jul 2007 17:42:26 GMT

I don't call my professional blog (and my personal web site) Process of Change, for no reason. Change, and lots of it, is about the only thing we can count on in this life. Well, yes, there is always the proverbial death and taxes. But I've heard rumors about taxes, and if there's anything to Kurzweil's view, death may be rif'd soon enough.

Anyway, we (the Microsoft.com Communities Team) have been re-organized into the MSDN/TechNet organization. That's why I've not been doing as much blogging as usual. Re-organizations cost time in terms of adjustment.

The prevailing view is that "community" should be surfaced first on the TechNet/MSDN properties. Needless to say that does change priorities. Delivering first to TechNet/MSDN will require some refactoring.

It also changes focus. The communities team was all about enabling community (any, many, Microsoft technology-focused communities), but owned, or more accurately hosted, no community of its own. MSDN/TechNet, on the other hand, are by charter responsible for IT professional and developer community all up. And it seems some of us may have the opportunity to influence the direction that takes. While exactly how that influence shapes up remains to be seen, I can't deny the magnitude of the opportunity. If we do this right, we could have a bigger impact, and make it sooner, than would have otherwise been the case.

In my studies I've come across a British (evolutionary) biologist by the name of J.B.S. Haldane. One of his more quotable quotes sums up the experience the communities team has had over the past year. "There are four stages of acceptance: 1) this is worthless nonsense; 2) this is an interesting, but perverse, point of view; 3) this is true, but quite unimportant; 4) I've always said so."

Process of Change : change

OpenSocial, Punctuated Equilibrium

Change Happens