The software crisis

The software anti-crisis

Jeff — Wed, 25 Feb 2004 18:01:00 GMT

I think he's wrong too. In fact, it's surprising that someone in his position would be so out of touch.

If code monkey wages are going down (and that certainly hasn't been my experience for .NET folks in my area), then it's because the market is over-saturated with people. This has been going on for years in the admin/OS area, and it's now just as bad for the networking people. Cisco certified people are a dime a dozen. Why would anyone pay top dollar for one of these people when they get 200 resumes for the same job?

All of that aside, he's clearly not talking to the same people I talk to. The bigger consulting firms down to the local shops are struggling to line up qualified people for all of the new business that started rolling in or prospecting in late 2003. Maybe that's unique to the Cleveland/Akron area, but I doubt it.

re: The software crisis

Dennis — Wed, 25 Feb 2004 20:08:00 GMT

It's always foolish to complain about lost jobs due to increased productivity. That process is the reason we're such a wealthy society.

I can address the issue of medical software...I spent four years as a developer on a project that semi-automated medical referrals and eligibility checks. And the unfortunate fact is, that's a very conservative industry. Our system replaced processes based on phone calls and paper, saving tons of labor, and it took years to convince some clinic networks to use it. And it's a pretty simple system, just set up a computer with web access in the front office and you're good to go.

Billing is pretty well automated right now...mostly based on ancient EDI/mainframe tech but it works. Some schmuck has to type the treatment info into the system, but no matter what your system, you have to tell it how you actually treated the person. Trust me, you won't get the doctor to deal with it. And it's all controlled by IT groups that usually aren't real open to outside ideas anyway.

Expert systems for diagnosis were invented a couple decades ago. If doctors were willing to use them, they'd be everywhere. I read an article last year about someone trying it again, and doctors just didn't like the idea.

In sum...I don't think it's just a lack of time that prevents us implementing such cool ideas. It's a bunch of people not playing well together, not trusting other people's work, afraid of losing control.

(Price comparison is another example...do stores really want their customers comparing prices that easily? Probably not. IIRC, somebody got sued last year for trying to implement that.)

re: The software crisis

John Cavnar-Johnson — Wed, 25 Feb 2004 20:34:00 GMT

While I agree with your basic point, your examples show an amazing naivete towards the way the world works.

First, although there is a real need for software and automation in the health care industry, medical diagnosis modeling is so beyond the current capabilities of the software industry that your scenario is laughable. Most medical diagnoses are mind-numbingly obvious. Distinguishing between the obvious (otitis media, allergic rhinitis, high blood pressure, diabetes, depression, etc.) and the obscure isn't usually a question of ordering tests and following some decision tree. More often, it's making a judgment based on the appearance, affect, and history of the patient. Computers are ill-suited to help with these.

Software to enable your shipping and shopping scenarios are actually quite trivial. What's lacking is the rather obvious problem that it's not in the vendors best interest to provide the data to enable you to find the best price. Industry-wide profits would only go down.

The traffic scenario is the most interesting, but again somebody has to see enough benefit to fund the software development and systems deployment. Regional governments are the logical candidates, but they haven't usually been effective at complex systems development.

re: The software crisis

Darcy Burner — Wed, 25 Feb 2004 21:11:00 GMT

With respect to my examples: I didn't say that the software was trivial to create, only that the problem could be solved by software. And yes, figuring out appropriate business models is always a needed exercise in this industry (or any other). I expect, in fact, that a post on business models will be forthcoming.

My basic point remains, though: we have a huge unmet need for software, and increased efficiency of development, coupled with increased availability of skilled programmers, is a very good thing.

re: The software crisis

John Cavnar-Johnson — Thu, 26 Feb 2004 04:07:00 GMT

I'm afraid you missed my point. None of the problems you described will be solved by software (except maybe the traffic one) because the solutions involve too many people acting against their self-interest. There is no business model to be found in people acting against their own interest (unless you are a con artist or have coercive power over them). I agree that there is a huge unmet need for software development, but let's not confuse that with wish fulfillment.

re: The software crisis

Bill Trowbridge — Thu, 26 Feb 2004 13:00:00 GMT

John, I agree. I was was about to put it like this:

Creating the software is easy. Creating the systems is hard.

You pointed out some of reasons that it's hard, infeasible, or even impossible. For the most part this is economics question. Who is willing and able to take the risk and pay the salaries to develop software to support a particular system?

Coincidentally, earlier today, I asked my doctor/client, a family practitioner, about his use of diagnosis systems. He said there are even tiny systems for PDAs that can do partial diagnosis (down to a few possibilities).

Nonetheless, the tone of the original blog is right on. We don't (now) develop software fast and inexpensive enough.

Programmer Productivity and Market Demand

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