What's the big deal anyway?
Ok, so I am told it might be Victor Hugo who said that and not Newton. A quick search on the web produced all kinds of results, some attributed to Hugo and some to Newton. Unless I find it from a credible source, I will leave it as Newton's quote.
So, why do I belive RFID is such a great idea, three reasons
It can be cheap, I know, I know, if you are a manufacturer bending over backwards to comply with Wal-Mart you may violently disagree. But this is just getting started, as the demand increases and the technology improves moore's law comes into effect. I expect 5 cent tag 5-7 years from now. The Readers are already a whole lot better than there predecessors in terms of smarts, as the volume increase, I expect prices to go down considerably
It can be pervasive, from the shop floor to the top floor. It makes sense at Pallet and Case level today, it will become more compelling at an item level soon (though I dont expect an RFID-Tagged can of coke in my life time). Anti-counterfeit use for Pharmaceuticals can reduce grey market (and safe lives), every business can gain from better Asset management. Governments are looking to put it on passports, drivers license, citizen cards etc. Manufacturing has been using it for matching sub-assemblies and tracking manufacturing processes and inventories for years. It is a compelling technology to link the physical world to the digital world or enable 'Internet of things' as they say.
Its driven by the industry, not the technology players. My guess over 100 thousand suppliers around the world will have to comply with Wal-Mart like mandates from their suppliers in next 3 years. Hospitals, airports, theme parks etc are adopting the technology slowly but surely. Business cases are evolving but most are stuck at cost or the hardware to improve, something thats bound to happend over time.
What can pour cold water on all this grand plans, the following 4 come to my mind
Lack of acceptable, vendor adopted standards, without which Tags and Readers can not interoperate, customer software will be needed to connect with Readers from differnt vendors and manage data
Lack of robust, scalable, easy to deploy software from proven vendors, who will be around to support an enterprise deployment. Its pretty confusing today if you are a customer, you have to custom develop a good portion of the "RFID Middleware" on your own, if you want something that can scale.
The "Physics" never improve, you need 100% tag reads, if you miss a Case, the value prop is down the drain. Read rates are important, reade accuracy around challenging environments (Metals, Liquids etc) is key.
Privacy concerns can lead the Retailers to drop the ideas, legislations could stall the adoption
As always, I welcome your thoughts