The entertainment industry is a funny business. It is completely dependant on the random whims of consumers. That is not to say that the success of a product is unpredictable, simply that there are a great many factors involved in design, development and distribution of an entertainment property that getting them all together is a fluid venture at best.
As I’m sure we all know, Halo 2 dropped recently to great fanfare. This follow up to the perennial Xbox title was highly anticipated and accompanied with some killer trailers and excellent television commercials. The media was whipped into a savage frenzy that culminated in a $125 million dollar opening day bombshell.
Numbers like that are simply unprecedented. Nothing has ever come close to matching a single day total like that of Halo 2. Even such powerhouse properties as the Spider-Man movie franchise pales in comparison. Spider-Man 2 bowed in with an opening weekend, a long 4th of July weekend I might add, with $115 million. But let’s compare something a little closer, digital animated feature films. Shrek 2 bowed in with an opening weekend of $108 million. Finding Nemo racked up $70 million in its debut weekend.
By those comparisons, Halo 2 devastated the entertainment industry. However, if we take a step back and view the entire domain of digital entertainment, a different picture begins to take shape. Shrek 2 piled up $436 million in US domestic box office sales during its 14 week theatrical run and Finding Nemo scored $339 million for its 29 week run. Remember, that is the US box office sales.
Some estimates suggest that approximately 15 million Xbox units have been sold worldwide. If one copy of Halo 2 were sold for every Xbox at $50 per sale, then Halo 2 would scratch up $750 million in worldwide sales. As much as I would love to see that come to fruition, I just can't see it. In fact, I can’t see sales of Halo 2 topping $400 million, but it is possible.
Now look at this picture again, Shrek 2 scored $436 million in US box office sales. Halo 2 _could_ reach $750 million world wide.
Take another step back and the fog begins to clear. Worldwide box office figures for Shrek 2 and Nemo top out at $849 and $865 million respectively. And we haven’t even begun to touch DVD and VHS sales or rentals yet.
Sure the Halo 2 release was a massive success, but let’s not consider it an earth shattering event just yet.
Which brings me to another issue. What the hell is wrong with Disney? Have they become so bloated that they have forgotten how to make a good animated movie?
Look at the charts and it’s clear to see that the future of Disney animation is Pixar. At least, one would think so. Since 1989 Disney has released 9 traditional animation movies and 6 digital animation movies in conjunction with Pixar. The most lackluster of all the Pixar movies, A Bug’s Life (1998), currently sits at #84 in the all time box office charts with $357 million. At $357 million, A Bug’s Life roasts all of the traditional animation releases except for Tarzan (1999, #51 @ $435), Aladdin (1992, #35 @ $501) and The Lion King (1992, #15 @ $784).
And, with the exception of A Bug’s Life, each successive Pixar movie has out grossed it’s predecessor. With an opening weekend take of $143 million, The Incredibles looks to continue this trend (remember, Finding Nemo took in $70 million in its opening bow in 2003).
One would think that cultivating a relationship with Pixar would be a top priority at Disney, but instead they have done nothing but breed animosity and distrust. To the point where Pixar has decided to take their toys and play in someone else’s sandbox. Cars, the next feature from Pixar (slated for 2005) will be the final movie in the current contract between Disney and Pixar. Rather than try and smooth the ruffled feathers and extend that contract, Disney has apparently decided to spin up their own digital animation division (how long did it take to make this decision? 6 years? Right on time guys.) and crank out…Toy Story 3. Toy Story 2 is where the bad blood began between these companies to begin with.
The question has been raised as to whether Pixar can survive without Disney. In my opinion this isn’t even a question. Even if Pixar did not want to handle their own financing, publicity and distribution business (which they certain could) there are many powerhouse studios who are just waiting to swoop in and steal this money maker. Fox Studios has struggled with their animation division for years and finally landed a winner with Ice Age. They’ve got the juice to take on Pixar. Dreamworks has their own very successful animation studio (coincidentally Disney is building their digital division in Glendale California, not far from the Dreamworks studio) however, Dreamworks has shown a penchant for being opportunistic and could certainly handle bringing Pixar into their stable. Sony, Paramount and perhaps half a dozen others could all be interested in handling the load.
At this rate Disney animation will die a slow and agonizing Lilo & Stitch 6 death.
Will
