MSDN Student Flash

Microsoft matters!

It has a robust Developer Program (MSDN) that I and my colleagues rely on. Sun, on the other hand DOES NOT MATTER! Great engineering, poor execution, even worse support. Ever look at SDN (Sun Developer Network)? Why would I ever "subscribe" to this feeble program? Even giving up my e-mail address is too high a price to pay!

If you want to write a good term paper, write about Sun's pending demise.

How do you define 'won't matter'? - In terms of a single industry like the music industry or in terms of all commercial software? - And how do you define someday? - If someday >= 1,000 years, you are certainly right. If someday >= 100 years, you may be right. If someday >= 10 years, I think you are almost certainly wrong. There simply is too much stuff out there that relies on the technology/OS/languages around today that this is likely to come true. Especially when thinking about the most recent steps of the last few years that MS took, I think the will be _the_ major technology even in 10 years time.

Marc

At this point in time I haven't defined what "won't matter" means, but this is where my research will come into play. I am suspecting to make a prediction when MS will not matter anymore from an overall Information Technology perspective.

Think about how much the world has changed in the last 5 years, especially in the software industry and think about how much it's going to change in the next 5 to 10 years.

Unless Microsoft radically change their methods of working (i.e. forsake backwards compatibility for stability and speed in a similar way to Apple did with OS X - although their Classic mode did an excellent job of helping users bridge the gap), the technical gap between Windows and other operating systems will continue to widen (I'd LOVE to see something that can practically compete with the power and usability of OS X on non-Apple hardware, good as it is, it's also expensive). Unfortunately Windows isn't there yet.

In terms of application software (particularly Office suites, but with the exception of Internet Explorer), nothing else comes close - Office is a fantastic product (on both Windows and Mac OS). The MS developer tools are also wonderful (although I can't afford the .NET versions to play with, version 6 was excellent), as is their attitude towards developers (something sadly lacking with Apple and Palm). In these categories, Microsoft will continue to dominate, and this probably means that Windows will still be the major operating system 10 years from now.

Telecaster - Thanks for the great comments. If you are interested in checking out the MS IDEs for .NET, where they are at and where they are going check out the express bits: http://lab.msdn.microsoft.com/express/

Thanks for the link Eric, I'll certainly give VS C#.NET Express a try - I've played with the language previously using SharpDevelop, which provides a nice way into it - it certainly seems superior to Java for single platform development (not hard). Hopefully the mono project should help widen the appeal to users of other operating systems.

I think creating a successful competitor to the iPod matters to Microsoft, not because they want to sell lots of players, but because they want to gain control of the content formats, platforms and DRM systems, an iPod killer is just a stepping stone towards that end. With the increasing use of portable devices and online services, people are moving away from the desktop PC that has always been Microsofts lifeblood. If they manage to get a hold of some of the market for control of digital content and information services, they maintain a profit center once the era of the PC is over.

The problem is the ipod isn't just a technical success. Apple have been exceptionally successful in building something that not only works fairly flawlessly (based on 2 years experience of an iPod), but appeals to the sense of style of non-technical people. Microsoft probably won't do that.

Their creation, should they even attempt creating one, will probably be technically crippled with DRM, and probably designed in a similar way to their pocket PCs were a few years ago - stylistically (still in my opinion) inferior to Palm products, and with a battery life to match. Even if the thing is a perfect match for the iPod functionally and stylistically, the iPod is now pretty much the generic for a hard-disc based portable music player, so any competitor will have to be something special to beat it - the problem is theres not a lot that will make a player better than an iPod.

Telecaster is excatly correct about Microsoft's response to innovative products - it doesn't have to, and often does not, match or exceed the tecnical or stylistic nature of new products. The very fact that it is has a MS logo is enough for the masses. This consumer desire to purchase the same thing everyone else does reminds me of the behavior IBM depended on in the 1960s and 70s. The logo generated sales, not outstanding products. For example, why else would people put up with the certain hassles imbedded in IE?

As to Eric Maino's original statement that Microsoft Doesn't Matter, I think he is trying to draw a parrallel to Carr's IT Doesn't Matter article. In that sense, he is correct. While IT in itself doesn't make or break a company, one cannot opperate today without an adequate IT unit. In comparison, most office workers cannot operate without MS-Office today. The question then, is Microsoft doomed to repeat history and have it's dependence on its logo cause it to lose importance as consumers find alternative solutions. i.e. Open Office, or even perhaps OS X based office applications. The dependence on 'enhanced' technical products, or what some of us call 'technically crippled' products (e.g. DRM) eventually leads folks to give up with non-standard products (e.g. MS's version of XML)

Being around long enough to have a historical perspective, Eric's "someday" will come. If he can predict when "someday" is coming, he will be quite wealthy. :-)

Interesting.

If Microsoft enters a market, it's time to call the DOJ.

If Microsoft ignores or fails in a market, then Microsoft must be getting ready to fall.

James

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