Web vNext ARCast, and... what is Web vNext again?
While I'm on the subject of ARCasts, Check out Ron's audio ARCast (part1, part2) of the Tech.Ed 2006 Web vNext Panel with Rowan Simpson (of tradme.co.nz fame), George Moore (GM of Windows Live), and Scott Guthrie (GM for .NET). Great discussion, captured in front of and featuring questions from the live audience at Tech.Ed.
So what is Web vNext again? What does it mean to you? Every day I hear about new startups - here and overseas - that are doing very interesting things online, and I've noticed there's a general buzz in the industry that is starting to feel very similar to the buzz that existed prior to things turning pear-shaped on the internet in the early noughties... Is this buzz symptomatic of Web vNext in action? I think it could be...
With this in mind, here are my thoughts on the key features of web(vn)** (or Web 2.0 or Web 3.0 or whatever):
** Actually, from now on instead of Web vNext I'm going to use web(vn)(c)(tm)(r). I'm willing to license this new composite (and undeniably sexy) acronym for a reasonable rate - ping me for terms :)
1) It's Not About Technology. The technology is an enabler, but I'm immediately suss if someone tells me that a site - just because it uses AJAX, or WPF, or RSS* or <insert latest hot internet technology here> - it's web(vn). The use of new technologies may be part of building a better User Experience for an offering, but in my opinion web(vn) is relatively independent of the actual technology used - i.e I think it's possible to deliver a web(vn) application via a good ol' fashioned HTML or Forms based application. Seriously.
2) The Business Model is Actually Important. I think that this was largely missing from the 'irrational exuberance" of the first generation Web surge. "Businesses" that had absolutely no prospect of EVER making any money still managed to receive (and chomp through) crazy amounts of VC or shareholder funding before crashing and burning in the Web 1.0 shakeout. In web(vn), in order to survive and/or attract funding, I think it's crucial to show that your ideas or offering can convert into a solid revenue stream. A good monetisation/revenue strategy (or strong prospects of one) is therefore a key component of web(vn).
3) Web(vn) Leverages the Law of Large Numbers. The long-tail is all about being able to sell "The Negative Dialectics of Poodle Play" to the .001 percent of the browsing public that are interested in purchasing Ben Watson's excellent deconstruction of the late great Frank Zappa. Now, .001% doesn't seem like a lot, but if your total browsing population is around say a billion people that works out to be around 10,000 copies of the book. Now aggregate. Count every single 'unpopular' title ever published, and multiply that number by .001ish% of a billion. Pretty soon you are looking at some fairly respectable sales volumes. The key is being able to make these titles available for sale cheaply enough so that you can sell them for a profit. Traditional bookstores can't do this - since they are struggling with fairly hefty inventory/logistics costs. Online retailers who *don't* carry inventory, or who carry stock electronically (say as PDFs), can. Result - Amazon thrives by leveraging the long-tail, which is made possible by the number of consumers delivered to their door via the internet. This idea works all over the place - for instance, maybe I'm keen on paying fifty cents per episode for every "Bold n Moldy" episode ever shown. I don't want to buy DVDs - they cost too much, and in any event get scratched or lost, or my local DVD store doesn't carry them. I can't buy per-episode online, so I guess that means I'm a lost revenue opportunity to the network (CBS in this case). Look at what is happening with bittorrented shows on the internet - every single download represents a lost revenue opportunity to the owners of that IP. The law of large numbers means that it should be feasible for them to charge a few cents, or a few dollars, per episode. People WOULD pay for this service, in the knowledge that they are getting a quality version direct from the source, and aren't subject to any P2P sharing 'legal gray areas'. My wild guess is that they'd make more money by doing this than selling their content through traditional means (i.e. sell show to the network, network makes money from showing ads during the show, or by placing the show on pay-TV). Understanding how large numbers (and the long-tail effects thereof) relate to the success of your business is the third key web(vn) characteristic.
4) Don't forget to remove barriers to participation. So, maybe your business model (see point 2 above) is to leverage the long-tail (point 3) in whatever your offering market is. The long tail implies large numbers, which in turn implies gaining the mindshare of the community is important. How do you get this mindshare? One approach that has been shown to work time and again is to lower the barriers to entry for community participation, and hope that the participation goes viral. Flickr, eBay, MySpace, and GooTube are all great examples of this; each of these sites minimise barriers to entry that would have otherwise prevented members of the community (i.e. you and I) from posting and commenting on images and video, ranting via our blog, or selling things online. Each of these sites has been successful in garnering enough viral memes on the internet that they've become synonomous with a particular category of content sharing and/or forming connections between individuals. I'm willing to bet that there are an almost infinite number of opportunities to form communities for other types of content/activities on the internet. Having a model that recognises the importance of community participation is the fourth key characteristic of web(vn).
5) There is a long-tail for user-generated-content. And while we are on the subject, it's important to realise that one of the reasons community participation works so well is that there is a long-tail for community generated content. If I like leek twirling, chances are that someone, somewhere on the internet shares my weird passion and is willing to create and share content we both respond to. About 60% of the news I read is on blogs, precisely because I'm in the long-tail for content that is relevant to me. To put this another way, my preference is to go out and find content myself for stuff I'm interested in, rather than wait for the traditional media-push-model to randomly spit something out that I find relevant. So, understanding how the long-tail applies to content and service offerings is the last key characteristic of web(vn).
To summarise - in my opinion and from what I've observed, web(vn) involves having strategies in place that address most of these characteristics. As consumers become increasingly internet-savvy (and the long tail gets longer) I fully expect that these will be some of the predominant driving factors behind new online business offerings and models.
So, have I missed anything?
