More on why iPhone will fail

Bookmark this page and come back in December 2008 if Apple sells anywhere near the 10M phones they're targeting.  Here are more reasons I am not impressed by their phone, and why I'm surprised so many otherwise intelligent people think this is a watershed for the industry.

  1. It's closed to outside apps.  It's a "feature phone", not a smart phone.  You are at Apple's mercy to make a good experience.   Sure, it's nice that Apple can control the entire experience, but that only gets you so far.  How popular would iPod be if you could only play songs downloaded from iTunes? 
  2. No Keyboard!?!  I don't care how wonderful the on-screen experience is, you will demand a keyboard within a day of using it.  Lesley points me to all this research on haptic interfaces that demonstrates why we don't like to write on glass.
  3. No speech?!?  I admit that only 20% of people use speech features on their existing smart phones, but that's because so few phones have Voice Command.  I don't know how people make phone calls without high-accuracy voice dialing. I use it every single day. 
  4. Is it a good phone?  Latency is hard to get right in a device like this, and by being essentially a media device, iPhone is trying to do a lot. If you're watching a movie and your doctor calls, it is unacceptable for the phone to take its time answering.  Or if a bad guy starts your building on fire, you need to call 911 without the phone complaining that you are in the middle of a precious download.

Microsoft's not perfect; we don't have the ultimate phone either, but I'll take Windows Mobile any day over the iPhone and I bet serious users will agree.

Published 26 January 07 06:07 by sprague

Comments

# John C. Randolph said on January 27, 2007 12:04 AM:

"I'll take Windows Mobile any day over the iPhone and I bet serious users will agree."

Funny, everyone I know who has a Windows Mobile device hates it and can't wait to get an iPhone.

"Or if a bad guy starts your building on fire, you need to call 911 without the phone complaining that you are in the middle of a precious download."

Hmm.. I can't even imagine such a scenario, probably because I've never used any of the devices that are crippled with WINCE.  It sure sounds like the kind of thing that could happen if I were to let a microsoft product control my phone, though.

But be that as it may, I'd like to take you up on your bet. I'll bet even money that Apple beats their 10 million-unit target.  How much of that action do you want?

Oh, I see that you work on speech recognition at MSFT.  I know Apple's speech team pretty well, and I've never seen them blow a demo like you guys did a couple of months ago.  Don't you even know enough to use a proper directional, noise-cancelling mic  when you're going to attempt voice recognition in a noisy place (like a press conference)?

-jcr

# serioususer said on January 27, 2007 4:25 AM:

i disagree :)

# Nunuv Yurbiz said on January 27, 2007 5:11 AM:

Ballmer? Is that you? Your points are typical of Microsoft: you answer a question not asked, or lambast a device that does exactly what it purports to do, but not necessarily what you want.

For example, you say that the iPod would not have been so successfull if it could only play songs downloaded from iTunes. Duh. But that is NOT the consequence of the closed nature of the iPhone. The closed nature of the iPhone is with respect to FEATURES but you compare it to an iPod hypothetically closed with respect to CONTENT. That's disengenious and misleading. An iPhone will play all the songs you want, make all the calls you want, etc. To keep it consistent, you should ask whether an iPod would be successful only benig able to play songs, but not edit them (for example). And I think history has shown that to be the case.

You criticize the keyboard, but you've not used it and the reviews I've read indicate that you have to adjust but then it is faster to type on an iPhone than a smart phone with a plastic keyboard. (And, it's misleading for you to say that the iPhone has no keyboard - it certainly does, on screen.)

You criticize the iPhone because it doesn't have speech, but acknowledge only 20% of people use it? Whatever. (I don't know anyone who uses it any more - it was a novelty a few years ago, but passe now. And it doesn't work worth a damn. )

Finally, you wonder if it is a good phone. How is that a reason why the iPhone will fail? You don't even know the answer to your own question! No one does right now!

You might have mentioned that it does not support MS Exchange without the IMAP option on, so it won't appeal to corporate users. But that just means that it will fail in a market segment Apple isn't targeting. <shrug>

Or that it uses EDGE instead of 3G. Of course, very few cities have 3G whereas EDGE is widespread, <shrug>

Basically, you're pointing out that it's closed, just like the iPod, so it will fail....just like the iPod.

# Brian said on January 27, 2007 7:09 AM:

I think what you fail to realise is that just because something is not technically excellent doesn't mean it will not sell. Microsoft will manage it with XP SP3 or Vista as it is better know and Apple will market the iPhone so well that 10 million will sell and push other Apple stuff as well.

# sprague said on January 27, 2007 9:11 AM:

Thanks for the comments!  So who wants to take my bet?  Get out your wallet and let's mark this post.  

John C. Randolph, you're first:  You predict that yes, the iPhone will sell 10M.  Note that I'm not saying Windows Mobile is perfect -- just that Microsoft has had several extra generations to figure out that the standards for a phone are different than the standards on a media device.  The Blackberry is a great device because you can trust it as a phone first.  Will the same be true of iPhone?

Nunov, you make some good points about the real target market for iPhone -- but that's my point too.  Apple will need to learn that serious phone users need a phone first, and all that media stuff is irrelevant when you need to call 911.  It's extremely hard to get that right on the first try and I bet Apple won't.  Look, I worked at Apple for 6 years and I still love the company.  But they are not infallible, and phones are very hard to do right.

Brian, I don't disagree that Apple's marketing is good.  But I was there when we marketed the Newton.  If 10M people buy the iPhone (and I say they won't), most/many of them will be using it as a second phone unless the iPhone gets the phone parts absolutely perfect -- and that's very hard on the first shot.

# John C. Randolph said on January 28, 2007 3:19 PM:

I'm quite confident that the iPhone will be an excellent phone, because of Apples track record of concentrating on the main  purpose of a device.  Notice for example, that the iPod hasn't succumed to the feature bloat that its competitors keep piling on.  It is first and foremost a music player.  Likewise, the iPhone is first and foremost a phone, and I would be tremendously surprised if it were to crash in the middle of a call, like my partner's WINCE phone has a habit of doing.

But hey, nice try at the FUD there.  MS is getting their money's worth.

-jcr

# John C. Randolph said on January 28, 2007 3:21 PM:

Oh, and one other thing.  I don't just predict 10M units, I offered to take you up on YOUR proposed bet.  Even money: how much are you willing to risk?

-jcr

# Damien Guard said on January 29, 2007 9:32 AM:

This is mainly aimed at JCR:

I use my MacBook Pro every day.  I love OS X and my PowerBook G4 before it.  I develop for Windows so have Parallels VM for Visual Studio but other than that everything I use daily is on OS X (iCal, Colloquay, Adium, iTunes).

In short I love using Apple products.  The iPhone is a supreme disappointment in terms of features.

My Windows Mobile phone (HTC TyTN) might have a UI that doesn't match the slickness of iPhone but I use instant messaging (MSN), third party apps (ScummVM, own stuff) and am intending on adding a GPS BT module + mapping software.

iPhone is slick but feature bare and if I wanted to be stuck with a phone that had a limited feature set I'd  be using my monochrome Nokia from 8 years ago.

[)amien

# Richard Sprague WebLog said on January 29, 2007 10:04 AM:

According to USA Today : Among other things, Apple wanted a percentage of the monthly cellphone fees,

# Richard Sprague WebLog said on March 20, 2007 8:19 PM:

Hey, do TellMe employees agree with me about iPhone? Here's a video posted to Youtube's tellmezone :

# Richard Sprague WebLog said on September 6, 2007 11:48 PM:

I stand by the bet I made in January that Apple's iPhone won't sell anywhere near the 10M units they're

# Richard Sprague WebLog said on January 17, 2008 8:34 PM:

I got in trouble the last time I claimed the iPhone will fail , but now I see Garrett Smith is listing

# Noticias externas said on January 17, 2008 9:21 PM:

I got in trouble the last time I claimed the iPhone will fail , but now I see Garrett Smith is listing

# Relationship Compatibility said on June 6, 2008 8:33 PM:

Bookmark this page and come back in December 2008 if Apple sells anywhere near the 10M phones they're targeting. Here are more reasons I am not impressed by their phone, and why I'm surprised so many otherwise intelligent people think this is a watershe

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