Bet's still on

I stand by the bet I made in January that Apple's iPhone won't sell anywhere near the 10M units they're targeting for their first year.  You don't cut the price of something that's selling well. One of my friends at T-Mobile, who knows the business extremely well, thinks they'll have a tough time selling 3M in the first year.

Published 06 September 07 08:48 by sprague
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Comments

# Panamajack said on September 30, 2007 9:42 PM:

Just to be clear, we're talking worldwide sales right ?

Originally Job's prediction was 1% of the  worlds cell phone market, which of course is a moving, growing target, so he settled on 10 million world wide sales.

Just of out curiosity, what would you deem to be a "success" in this  highly competitive market for a manufacturer with no prior experience ? 3 mill, 4 mill ?

# Brian said on September 30, 2007 9:53 PM:

I'll take you up on that bet. Better yet, go to daringfireball.net and make a formal wager with John Gruber.

Oh, and I'll be the first one back here next year when Apple sells the 10 millionth iPhone to rub it in your face.

Hope you are having a great time using Vista (or are you still using XP like 99.9% of PC users?).

Oh, this is going to be good... can't wait.

# curtis said on September 30, 2007 9:55 PM:

what's your friend at T-Mobile do?

# Panamajack said on September 30, 2007 9:55 PM:

Another thought:

RE: the price cut, is that really the case?

Seems the Moto Razr was selling ridiculously well at a ridiculous price point when they dropped prices a few years back and went to sell boatloads of the devices.

Price cuts can result from a multiple of factors, including disappointing sales, but also from lowered costs due economies of scale. A million phones sold in a single market in the first quarter ain't too shabby, even if you discount the "fanboy factor".

# Gedeon said on September 30, 2007 10:13 PM:

So I'm curious. What will happen if you lose this bet? Will you post a public acknowledgment that you didn't have the first clue about how the cell phone industry and Apple's target audience work? Will you post an ad for the iPhone on your home page? Or will you simply ignore the sales figures and act like this post never happened? Do tell.

# Kontra said on September 30, 2007 10:13 PM:

"You don't cut the price of something that's selling well"

No kiddin'. Apple has the balls to not just cut prices, but to eliminate all together the best selling MP3 player in history, the iPod mini, at the height of its run and replace it with iPod nano. Apple is not Microsoft. Thank God, you're no longer at Apple.

# fog city dave said on September 30, 2007 10:13 PM:

I'll take that bet. And to be fair, Steve Jobs said from day one that the goal was to sell 10M and have 1% of the cell phone market by the end of 2008 (which is the first 18 months, not the first year). Go back and watch the MacWorld keynote if you don't believe me.

As for your friend at T-Mobile's prediction, I'd be willing to raise you and bet that Apple will hit 3M in the first six months (through the quarter ending December 31, 2007). Care to take that action?

# Mike Bell said on September 30, 2007 10:15 PM:

I'll bet you $1000 that you're wrong. I'm also willing to bet you an extra $1000 for every 1 million units that they go over 3m. Do we have a deal?

PS: I feel like taking candy from a baby :(

# Joe said on September 30, 2007 10:15 PM:

You're not very smart are you. Guess that's why you're at Microsoft.

# Sirenoidea said on September 30, 2007 10:30 PM:

It is a minor thing, but Apple never said they would sell 10M iPhones in the first year. They said they would sell 10M by the end of 2008. The iPhone went on sale on the last weekend of June 2007. That would mean that they are saying they will hit the 10M mark in the first year and a half.

# Don said on September 30, 2007 10:57 PM:

ha ha ha

You're joking surely

# DMB said on September 30, 2007 11:04 PM:

I think you're wrong. I also think they'll sell 3M iPhones _this year_, easily. They have all the aces up their sleeve, and they lay them down one by one. The first one was price cut. I believe that was a calculated move to sell it first at a stratospheric price point and then cut the price to boost demand. It remains to be seen what the others are, but opening up to third party apps will pretty much be a nuclear option. Even locked down and without an SDK iPhone already has more third party apps than everything else combined. That's just in three months since launch. Now consider this - they've been selling them at a rate of 300K/mo for the first three months, at $600+tax. In 18 months that would mean 5.4M units in US alone, assuming updates come steadily and customers are satisfied. After they've cut the price, there are a few stores that are sold out on any given day, every day. This means they're moving the iPhones faster. Now wait till they launch in Europe, and then in Japan. Also wait for a new version to be unveiled at MacWorld in January. I think they'll sell well over 10M by October next year.

# Steve Klein said on October 1, 2007 12:11 PM:

You say this is a bet.  Is that a sincere offer?

Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?

I think you're wrong, and I'll be more than willing to put up some cash.  How, exactly, do I take you up on your offer?

# MIchele Fuortes said on October 1, 2007 2:53 PM:

Hi,

just a note that Steve Jobs said 10 M by end of 2008, which means 18 months, NOT one year

# dashiel said on October 1, 2007 3:22 PM:

i don't think microsoft is gargantuan enough to maintain the arrogant stance it used to take with competitors in the nineties.

you've lost the portable music market, the online content delivery market, search, and umpteen others in the past decade thanks to hubris like this.

# Seth said on October 1, 2007 7:41 PM:

Of course your friend (nameless) at T-Mobile (competitor) says they'll have a tough time selling 3M.

Its in his best interest to say that. T-Mobile isn't going to admit that there is a superior product to the phones they offer.

I also find it interesting that everyone has "a friend who knows the business" but never names them.

Ever think that its entirely possible that Apple cut the price not because of poor sales but because they want to take the holiday season by storm and solidly say they are here to play in this game?

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