Software Engineering, Project Management, and Effectiveness
In the book, "How To Run Successful Projects III, The Silver Bullet", Fergus O'Connell uses a scoring system to predict project success.
What this means is that having clarity on what you want to accomplish and being able to identify the work to be done (steps 1 and 2) are the more significant indicators of project success.
After managing several projects over the years, I tend to agree. Step 2 is particularly interesting because it not only helps you calculate schedule and budget, but it helps you identify the right people for the jobs.