Software Engineering, Project Management, and Effectiveness
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker
This is my summary of key trends to watch for 2010. Putting it together is a time-consuming exercise, but it’s one of the most important things I do for the year. It helps me see the bigger map. With the bigger map, I have a simpler way to understand what’s going on, anticipate what to expect, respond more effectively, and most importantly – make better bets on where to spend my time.
Don’t read this as a definitive list. Draw from it to help you create your own lens to make sense of the landscape and find your path forward. It’s long, I tried to keep it as scannable as possible. I didn’t want to cut it short for the sake of simplicity. Instead, I wanted to provide a solid map with sources you can draw from as you plan your road ahead.
Key Sources I primarily draw from my own experience working with customers, and paying attention to what they’re paying attention to, as well as paying attention to my mentors and smarties across the company, and whoever they tell me to pay attention to. I also draw from the following:
Aside from these, I also scoured the Web and scanned bloggers, industry luminaries, and any relevant and significant insight I could find.
The Short List – 5 Keys to the Future Before the longer list, I want to shin the light on 5 key things:
Key Trends for 2010 Here is my summary of key trends for 2010:
My synthesis -- stay customer connected, create value for society (it’s not a vacuum), create raving fans, build to change over build to last, learn and respond through effective business intelligence, think in terms of platforms/ecosystems/execution, be the best in the world at what you do (on the Web, you don't need a bunch of #2s), stay flexible and adaptable, and build the network and relationships that support you and your ecosystem.
With that in mind, here are some more keys to watch for …
Trends to Watch in 2010 by John John deVadoss John runs our Microsoft patterns & practices team. He’s great at boiling things down, spotting trends, and his super skill is providing insight for technical strategy. Here are some of his insights for 2010:
Economy + Internet Trends by Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet Trends is a very nice report by Morgan Stanley. While it reinforces the “jobless” economic recovery, it does show growth in the IT sector, and it calls out some key tech trends:
I also like some of their distillations, such as “Facebook = unified communication + multimedia repository in your pocket.”
Web 2.0 Trends from Scoble Kevin Skobac put together a short presentation interpreting Scoble’s “principles of the 2010 web” from a user perspective:
Key Questions I Ask to Find and Rationalize Trends These are some of the basic questions I ask to find and rationalize key trends:
The Meta-Pattern for Trends These are some of the patterns I’m noticing about the patterns of the trends:
There are a lot of kings here. In checkers, it’s easier to win when you have a lot of kings.
The Way Foreword What’s past is past and the future
What else is important that I should know about or have on my radar and heat map?
Thank you very much for this post. I used to know what was going on in the world but I am now so busy that my finger is no longer on the pulse. This list helps people like me who don't have the time to figure all this out for themselves. New Year is the perfect time to post it too, as everyone is looking for new ideas and directions ;-)
This is an interesting list and I wonder how things will work in the end. I keep hearing about cloud computing and find it incredibly fascinating.
Thanks for this excellent post
Peter Drucker, I believe, finds the future in the present by "just" looking out the window. Alan Kay, I assume, predicts the future by creating it;) Thanks for the compilation. Raving fan in the making...
"Between information markets and crowd sourced intelligence and social networking, the real issue is how you leverage the data and turn it into intelligent decisions and smart feedback loops, and how you learn and respond." I like it a lot.
Hi, like this post a lot. More specifically the 'way forward' and 'follow the growth'. Mobile is indeed an opportunity, however this has been told by numerous persons since the beginning of 2000. When will the real opportunity be there, and for what sectors? Will it also move towards for example the travel industry where people book a hotel, or will the core stay at downloading ringtones and information requests. The part on cloud computing is really interesting, love to hear more about that. Thanks for the post.
Thanks for this very relevant post. In the past I never made such a list, but reading it for the 3rd time, make me feel I missed out on this. This will now be implemented as part of my yearly planning, both personal and business wise.
thanks for a great post JD and for linking to me - both much appreciated
Love this! Manic and thorough just as a list of web/software trends should be. Thanks for pulling this together.
As always like your posts, nicely written and summarized. Its easy to reach at the top, but hard to maintain it in this tech savvy edge. Thanks to you for putting this together, saved lot of time.
Nice compilation..Great Work..Thanks for setting up lens for us in New Year 2010
That has got to be the best post of the year! I know it only the 7th Jan, but that sure is a wicked post, love it. I love thinking of the future, and future trends. The only problem is that there is so many links I will be read for weeks to come and not getting any work done. Hehe
I've been a silent fan for year. But I have to say that I think this post represents some of the most profound thinking I have seen in a long time - about business, software architecture, personal improvement, everything that is important to anyone reading your blog. Very well put together!
I have followed you for several years and I always pick up great transportable lessons from your posts. This time was no different the collection you have put together is awesome and will take some time to swim through.
Whether you prevail or fail, endure or die—whether you make it onto the Fortune 500 and whether you stay there—depends more on what you do to yourself than on what the world does to you. (Jim Collins)
This post was very helpful for me to look at the big picture. I often get lost in the small details and forget about the long-term plan. Thanks for the info!